Why does Trump continue to do it? Why can’t he keep his mouth shut? Does he not see that the latest polls show
that Clinton is 10 points up on him?
Does he not hear the administration and the talking heads revile him and
his pronouncements and pontificate that he is unfit to lead the country
responsibly? Why does he continue to
generate such controversy nearly every day?
Is he that stupid to take on all comers, including his own party?
Like a fox, ladies and gentlemen, like a fox! His constituency is not a political party –
it is a populist movement. His rallies
continue to be SRO with attendance from all across the political spectrum,
Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians, etc.
His diatribes are not aimed at conventional Acela or Chicago or Left
Coast types (who primarily do the polls).
They are aimed at neglected, forgotten Middle Americans who are
struggling economically, who are alarmed at the terrorist inspired violence in
the world and who are sick and tired of a do-nothing government that values
political correctness over any kind of positive action.
Trump is a “media master”.
He knows exactly what he is doing.
He is keeping the media and the talking heads in a turmoil. His face and his words are in front of all of
us nearly as often as the Young Obama at his best in 2003-04. His base constituency could care less about
his outbreaks, He is “their man” - the political
outsider who is going to fix things.
This political movement comprising Trump backers has not
drunk the Obama and Clinton Koolaid.
They see the Clintons for what they are – lying, lawbreaking corrupt,
cynical Democratic machine politicians, who have lined their own pockets at the
expense of the people they are supposed to represent. These Trump supporters are not too enamored
with politicians in general, and that’s why Trump, a non- politician outsider
is like a breath of fresh air to them.
But what about the polls – can Trump possibly win, 10 points
behind in the Fox poll, and way behind with women, blacks and Hispanics in
myriad other polls? Again, analysis
along “normal” political lines seems not to be feasible in this type of
populist environment. Also, polling
results can’t fail to be skewed along the biased lines of the media in the
country, which inexorably leans to the left and presents polling results which
are as distorted as their “news coverage” of the candidates.
The above notwithstanding, our electoral college system
leaves only a few states which are truly in play during an election, so polling
results which include unchangeable states like California, Illinois, and the
Northeastern states really are not pertinent.
So what if 80 percent of some elective group in California shows against
Trump in a poll. California is locked in
as Democrat, anyway, in so far as the electoral college is concerned.
A liberal university has smugly predicted that Clinton will
“blow away” Trump in the general election by 343 electoral votes to 191. Their map shows all of the states truly in
play as going tor Clinton. A quick
spreadsheet analysis shows that a swing of just four of these “flyover” states
would give an electoral college win to Trump.
Where is Trump’s main strength?
In the “flyover” states, The
polls and comments from the talking heads at this stage of the election process
are next to meaningless, particularly in this populist driven election.
Ray Gruszecki, August
6, 2016
