Trump Way Behind in the Polls (Or is He?)

Why does Trump continue to do it?  Why can’t he keep his mouth shut?  Does he not see that the latest polls show that Clinton is 10 points up on him?  Does he not hear the administration and the talking heads revile him and his pronouncements and pontificate that he is unfit to lead the country responsibly?  Why does he continue to generate such controversy nearly every day?  Is he that stupid to take on all comers, including his own party?

Like a fox, ladies and gentlemen, like a fox!  His constituency is not a political party – it is a populist movement.  His rallies continue to be SRO with attendance from all across the political spectrum, Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians, etc.  His diatribes are not aimed at conventional Acela or Chicago or Left Coast types (who primarily do the polls).  They are aimed at neglected, forgotten Middle Americans who are struggling economically, who are alarmed at the terrorist inspired violence in the world and who are sick and tired of a do-nothing government that values political correctness over any kind of positive action. 

Trump is a “media master”.  He knows exactly what he is doing.  He is keeping the media and the talking heads in a turmoil.  His face and his words are in front of all of us nearly as often as the Young Obama at his best in 2003-04.  His base constituency could care less about his outbreaks,  He is “their man” - the political outsider who is going to fix things.

This political movement comprising Trump backers has not drunk the Obama and Clinton Koolaid.  They see the Clintons for what they are – lying, lawbreaking corrupt, cynical Democratic machine politicians, who have lined their own pockets at the expense of the people they are supposed to represent.  These Trump supporters are not too enamored with politicians in general, and that’s why Trump, a non- politician outsider is like a breath of fresh air to them.

But what about the polls – can Trump possibly win, 10 points behind in the Fox poll, and way behind with women, blacks and Hispanics in myriad other polls?  Again, analysis along “normal” political lines seems not to be feasible in this type of populist environment.  Also, polling results can’t fail to be skewed along the biased lines of the media in the country, which inexorably leans to the left and presents polling results which are as distorted as their “news coverage” of the candidates.

The above notwithstanding, our electoral college system leaves only a few states which are truly in play during an election, so polling results which include unchangeable states like California, Illinois, and the Northeastern states really are not pertinent.  So what if 80 percent of some elective group in California shows against Trump in a poll.  California is locked in as Democrat, anyway, in so far as the electoral college is concerned.

A liberal university has smugly predicted that Clinton will “blow away” Trump in the general election by 343 electoral votes to 191.  Their map shows all of the states truly in play as going tor Clinton.  A quick spreadsheet analysis shows that a swing of just four of these “flyover” states would give an electoral college win to Trump.  Where is Trump’s main strength?  In the “flyover” states,  The polls and comments from the talking heads at this stage of the election process are next to meaningless, particularly in this populist driven election.

Ray Gruszecki,  August 6, 2016

SHAPE UP AMERICA!

I wrote the following after landing at O’Hare in Chicago after a flight from Ankara, Turkey in June, 2014.  It is pertinent now in light of recent dialogue about the poor condition of the infrastructure (including airports) in our country.  Unfortunately, the “young people in slovenly dress sprawled in walkway areas”, would most likely be originally Bernie supporters, and now Hillary supporters.  Not to paint all millennials with the same brush, but so many young people these days expect entitlements without working for them, as if these entitlements just appeared out of thin air.  Free college, $15/hr minimum wage, forgiveness of college debts, jobs appearing out of nowhere or from government largesse – and on and on.   Written in June, 2014 “As many of you know from my Facebook posts, I just returned from where I have been have travelling in Turkey for several weeks. It was great trip. I primarily went to see the antiquities that are replete in Turkey. I found much more. I expected a somewhat backward, laid back Moslem country. What I found is a proud, dynamic, vigorous secular country of “can do” people. Does that remind one of something? Maybe like our own USA in the first half of the 20th century? I did not see any Turks looking for a handout, or for unearned “entitlements”. I saw people actively working - at whatever level, from trash pickup, to service workers, to the professional classes. In Antalya we were surprised to hear a garbage truck playing Vivaldi’s “Four Seasons” while the men worked. The workers waved in happy, non-contrived, fashion. Long flight airports are always challenging. The airline carriers on my international flights (Germany/Turkey) were efficient, on time, with good service. Airports were clean and well appointed. I came into the USA via O’Hare in Chicago. I thought that I was in a third world country in the ‘60’s. Young people in slovenly dress sprawled in walkway areas, eating, drinking, etc. “Chaotic” does not even begin to describe the scene. I love the USA and I am saddened when I see lack of responsibility and selfishness erode the principles that made our country the greatest in the world. It really brings it home when I see a country like Turkey exhibiting the values that made our country great, while we Americans don’t seem to give a damn. Can we not instill some pride in our bearing? In our work ethic? In our identity as Americans in this greatest country on earth? I realize that using specific incidents to postulate conclusions is not intellectually fair, but these comments are a culmination of observations over a period of time. A trip like this to a foreign country is a juncture which allows highlighting our seeming erosion of values. SHAPE UP AMERICA! Starting in Washington.” I have been to East Europe, Turkey, China and Spain in the last three years.  All but China have deteriorated and have become prone to almost daily violence due primarily the actions of the the Daesh caliphate and to the migration crisis from the Middle East and Africa.  China’s technocratic rulers plot a separate course for their 1,400,000,000 people and represent another form of long term threat.  But the Western “Democracies”, including our own country, are hurting from too much micro management, too much political correctness, too much talk, and not enough action.  Some of our leaders will not even name Islamic Terrorism by name. And the reactions are not pretty to see, either.  Euroskeptic parties from both right and left are gaining strength in Europe.  Hungary and Poland are already virtually Neo-Fascist in nature.  Brexit is a reality.  Donald Trump is running a populist campaign along similar lines of dissatisfaction and will probably win the U.S. presidency.  The consensus of over 820+ million people in the U.S. and E.U. is that we cannot continue to tolerate the violence which claims innocent lives nearly every day, and which is inspired primarily by Islamic radicals.  We cannot continue to talk about it in “politically correct” terms, and to claim, as the current U.S. administration does, that “there is no problem, the crime rates are down”.  The people in the western world, not just “Larry the Cable Guy types”, but a broad range of people across all social and intellectual lines, are demanding change, and a return to actual government, not the lip service, corruption, dishonesty and political correctness that we’ve seen in recent times. A return to stronger governments and nationalism, while soothing to the dissatisfied mind, obviously can be dangerous.  Chants of “demagoguery, Fascism, racism” are already bandied about by the biased U.S. media.  Thankfully the checks and balances embedded in our U.S. system should allay abuses from any one segment of government.  Hopefully our European friends will react in a similar responsible fashion. The civilized world needs to defeat the corrosive Islamic radicalism (Daesh or ISIS), which threatens to push the world back to the 7th century.  We need to come to grips with governments where nuclear weapons are incipient, that try to keep their populations in the 11th century.  We also need to find realistic and humanitarian solutions for the world’s migration and immigration problems.  We need to somehow accommodate the millions of human refugees that have resulted from recent military and social disruptions. All of the above requires action.  Not talk, not political correctness.  Intelligent, pragmatic, decisive action.

The Trump Phenomenon - II

When Donald Trump first announced that he would run for President of the U.S. I predicted that he would indeed become the Republican nominee, and eventually, the President.  I stand by that prediction.  As I blogged in March, Trump is a phenomenon, not just a standard Republican candidate.  He is taking advantage and riding the wave of a (western) world-wide disaffection and disenchantment with the status quo.  Brexit proved that over liberalization and too much political correctness and too many rules, coupled with ill-defined and weak leadership from the EU would not be tolerated.  The Trump phenomenon is proving the same in the U.S.

Trump takes on all comers – corrupt, weak, unjust, i.e., the establishment.  He calls it the way it is.  He hits at not only inner beltway abuses, but also the biased news media that supports the ineptitude and corruption and injustice in Washington.  His targets are not only Obama and Hillary.  Inept and vituperative Republicans are not spared.  CNN and NBC and NYT are slanted against him?  Who cares?  Many of us get our news and read opinions on social media these days, and Trump & Co. are masters of the Internet, and of the media in general.  He is not just a candidate, he is a populist phenomenon.

Already the biased media talking heads and similarly biased “opinion” pieces start their barrage against Trump.  “Fascist”, “racist”, “hate monger”, “demagogue” and worse.  These peoponents of the status quo and opponents of change fail to see the meaning of Brexit in England and the euroskeptic movements in Europe.  People are fed up with middle road apologists, their so-called ”political correctness” and their “only we know what’s best for you” attitudes.  The reactions and the results are not always pretty.  Beata Szydlo of Poland and Viktor Orban of Hungary are recent examples of not too pretty right wing (and almost neo-fascist) democratically elected governments. 

Inveterate intellectual Democrats will not be dis-abused of their shop worn and disproven socialist theories and will vote for Hillary no matter what.  Those who are truly intellectually honest will acknowledge the morass that our country is in and will hold their nose and vote for Trump and for change and law and order.  Hopefully so will Bernie followers without jobs drowning in college debt who see Trump as a jobs oriented leader.  So will dis-satisfied and disenfranchised middle class Americans stuck with no jobs or low paying jobs.  And so many more of us who are just fed up with virtually no leadership out of Washington, a cynical disregard for law and order, and liberal rhetoric that encroaches on our morals and ethics and religious beliefs with “political correctness”.  We have had enough already.

Don’t Drink the Kool Aid

Don’t Drink the Koolaid

The average, mostly apolitical American has been fed a continuing gruel of skewed news, lies and politically “correct” views; to the point that rank falsehoods have been imbued with the mantle of truths and have become embedded in our culture.  

The process is insidious.  If major network news, CNN, the New York Times et al say it’s so, it must be so.  If our national leadership continues to point to what they consider problems and avoid addressing others, their views must be guiding principles, must they not?  In time we drink the Koolaid and are led down this skewed (and crooked) path.

This article discusses only two such untruths – the falsehood of “assault rifles”, and the falsehood of disproportionate use of firearms by police against black men.

Volumes have written about second amendment rights, but out of the rhetoric comes the bugaboo of the AR-15 as a monstrous “assault rifle” and as a tool of massive destruction.  In actual fact, the AR-15 is a popular one-shot-at-time (semi-automatic) civilian rifle.  Its’ very ubiquity and popularity have resulted in its’ use in several high profile shooting incidents.  Inaccurate press reporting and inept legislators have made the AR-15 into a false “killing machine” in the popular view.  I’ve blogged extensively on this topic and reference my blog here.    http://raygruszecki.blogspot.com/. Choose the blog on the Truth about “Assault Weapons”

With all of the recent news about demonstrations and riots by “Black Lives Matter”, the average viewer and reader would think that a disproportionate number of black men are killed by white policemen in the U.S.  Statistics simply do not bear this out.  The number of black men killed by police is proportionally the same as for Caucasians and Hispanics.  It seems that the only thing out of proportion is the increased releases of smart phone videos out of the black community to an avid press corps.  Both long term statistics and recent, focused studies support the above conclusion.  An in depth Harvard study just published posits “On the most extreme use of force – officer-involved shootings–we find no racial differences in either the raw data or when contextual factors are taken into account”  Full Harvard Study.   New York Times Report       More extensive FBI Data.  

The Harvard study points out that while young black men are more likely to be stopped and hassled than young white men, black men are not disproportionately shot by police, thereby dispelling the whole “Black Lives Matter” argument. Note how the New York Times article bends the rhetoric a little bit in the direction of supporting the BLM movement.

As far as the hassling of young black men is concerned, it is to be remembered that many of these police stops are in high crime urban settings, which leads to increased suspicion.  One of the points made in the NYT article is surprise that more police shootings don’t take place in these volatile environments.

The above two examples illustrate how watching “normal” TV news and reading “normal” mainstream newspapers can instill a false view of the world.  What is the answer?  To my view it is not to watch only Fox News and read only the Wall Street Journal as counterbalance to liberal-leaning news.  This would result in an equally biased opposite view of the world.  All the above being the case, where do we get balanced and unbiased news?  I don’t think that such is entirely possible, but after long experience, three sources come to mind that are pretty reasonably balanced on most issues concerning the U.S.  These are The Telegraph newspaper out of the U.K., the Thomson Reuters news agency, and the Pew Research group.