Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Trump Economy, Durability



Trump Economy, Durability

As I have stated on many occasions, I am not a big fan of Donald Trump, the man and his peccadillos.  However, I’m positively stunned by his personality based brand of American populism and nationalism because it has resulted in such direct, “in your face” changes to the progressive nanny state model based on identity politics promulgated by the previous administration and by his democrat “resistance” opposition.

The main reasons that I sometimes come across as an apologist for Trump is primarily because of the absolutely biased and distorted media coverage against him, and secondarily, it’s the economy, stupid.  The MSM fuels the antagonistic feelings and hatred against Trump and his administration and feeds the unhealthy divisions in the country.  All you need to do is turn on CNN or MSNBC for a few segments, or read the front pages and opinion pages of the New York Times and Washington Post to experience this bias directly.  ABC, CBS and NBC are equally leftist oriented. Magazines like “Time”, “Newsweek” and the “New Yorker” add fuel to the fire with long dissertations on how Trump should be removed.

Trump is certainly nowhere near an ideal leader, but common sense dictates that he is not the unmitigated pariah that much of the MSM paints him.  Trump could hold the cure for cancer in one hand and lasting world peace in the other hand, and he still would be reviled by the hate driven “never Trumpers” and their MSM minions.

Notwithstanding the bantering and sometimes inane tweets and occasional “mal mots” emanating from Trump, one cannot fault what has happened to the economy since his election.  The stock markets are at record highs.  The Dow Jones index has risen by over 18%.  Unemployment hovers just above 4%, the lowest in 10 years.  GDP growth has been over 3% for two quarters, even with three major hurricanes hitting the country in the third quarter of 2017.

The democrat opposition and the “never Trumpers” best keep these numbers in mind when they talk about impeachment or even about swiftly voting Trump out.  “It’s the economy, stupid” was coined by James Carville during the 1992 Bill Clinton campaign. The phrase pertains equally well in 2017 or 2020 or 2024.  So called “social justice” issues like removing confederate statues and gender bathroom rules pale by comparison to a vibrant and burgeoning economy.  This is particularly true in those 85% of American counties that voted for Trump in the last election, low approval ratings from the east and west coast notwithstanding

And the democrat “resistance” and “never Trumpers” seem to have run the course in their efforts to remove Trump, who is a duly elected president, from office.  In summary:

11.)    As soon as Trump was sworn in, the plaintiffs in Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington instituted a law suit against Trump alleging that he has violated the Foreign Emoluments Clause.  But the evidence is that the Foreign Emoluments Clause was never meant to apply to the president, and the consequence is that the plaintiffs’ case is basically a non-starter, notwithstanding the Trump organization’s hotel a block from the capitol.

22.)    The democrats equally quickly made allegations that Trump broke the law by colluding with the Russians during his campaign. In nearly a year of accusations and six months of investigations by special prosecutor Mueller, there has been no proof of any direct Trump collusion with the Russians.  In fact Mueller’s investigation has now turned toward the Clinton’s collusion with Russia in a pay-for-play scheme involving sale of uranium to Russia’s Putin, and the Hillary Clinton campaign’s collusion with the Russians concerning a discredited anti-Trump dossier.

33.)    Volumes have been written in the left wing press about accusing Trump of an inability to govern because of his implied volatility and other character traits and applying the 25th amendment against him.  Various scenarios have been presented on the mechanics of such a move.  From what I’ve read, this would require initial action by a loyal vice president and cabinet, followed by a 2/3 vote in both houses.  Obviously, this is not a very likely possibility, particularly since Trump seems to be a picture of physical and mental health, even though he has that massive personality.

44.)    Other volumes have been written in the MSM about impeachment and leftist wishful  thinking with this aim.  It behooves his detractors to remember that a sitting U.S. president has never been removed from office by being impeached.  Chances for Trump’s removal by legal or congressional action seem pretty distant as long as there are republican majorities in both houses, even though there have been spats within the republican party. Remember that although both Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached by the house, they were later acquitted by the senate. Richard Nixon might have been impeached and removed from office, but he quit first. It is obvious that impeachment is not an easy road.

55.)    Another dream of the left is voting him out.  Of course the democrats’ goal in 2018 is to gain hegemony in both houses of congress, making moves against Trump easier. The democrats have little chance of accomplishing this so long they lack a cohesive platform, proper leadership and insist on the shop worn identity politics like political correctness and gender issues that caused their 2016 defeats in the first place. Also measured predictions for 2018 and 2020 do not really give the democrats very much of a chance of prevailing in either house of congress.  Trump’s unexpected campaign performance and win in 2016 belies chances of defeating him in 2020, particularly if the economy continues to perform well under his brand of pro-business with fewer restrictions

So we’re stuck with Trump for the balance of four years, and most likely for a total of eight years. No level of rhetoric or gnashing of teeth will change that. This is sort of like the Clinton years and the Obama years were for republicans.

It would be productive and conducive to better government if the democrats developed a rational platform, elected opposition members of congress who participate in government rather than obstruct, and provide a valid counter to Trump and his minions and his sometimes destructive populism. To an admittedly mild conservative/libertarian, increasingly strident, and nearly seditious rhetoric, curtailing speech at our colleges and hooded, black-shirted rioting in the streets are not going to do the democrats, or the country very much good. A return to some modicum of more polite and rational discourse is necessary to do that.

Ray Gruszecki
October 31, 2017

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