Military Help for Ukraine

 

Military Help for Ukraine

 It occurs to me that there are more ways to supplement Ukraine’s air power than risking World War III by flying fighters to Ukraine from NATO countries in the face of Putin’s rattling his nukes.  Biden and his sophomoric handlers seem really cowed by the bully’s nuclear threats, so we need to explore alternatives.

 A little history first.  Mainly American volunteer pilots formed the now famous “Lafayette Escadrille” and flew for France against Germany before the U.S. entered World War I.  The Flying Tigers were an FDR sanctioned group of American volunteer pilots that flew for China against Japan in early 1941, before Pearl Harbor and the start of World War II.  (As an aside, I visited the Vinegar Joe Stilwell Flying Tiger Museum in Chongqing, China during my trip to China in 2015.)

 There have been other mercenary air forces flying modern jets, not always by “good guy” Americans.  The Katangese air force of the 1960’s comes to mind, as well as several private mercenary air forces through the years.

 There are, right now, a number of private military companies that have access to air power.  Blackwater, renamed Xe Services, and now known as Academi, is one that is quite well known.  One of the oldest and most intimidating is Airborne Tactical Advantage Company (ATAC), a subsidiary of Textron conglomerate.  The Russian owned Wagner Group, that has been trying to assassinate President Zelenskyy, is another sinister one.

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/25991-world-s-most-powerful-private-air-forces

 The point is, why don’t our CIA “spooks”, in cooperation with the Ukrainian FISU Intelligence Service, get in touch with one (or more) of these “military service companies”, and see what they can do for Ukraine.  Maybe they already Have, I’m just sayin…

 Lest we forget, Putin occupied Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, and then invaded and is waging war against a democratically elected, sovereign country.  This is in violation of the 1994 Budapest memorandum, which guarantees the territorial integrity of Ukraine against attack if they relinquish their substantial inventory of nuclear weapons, (which they did).  Putin could give a “fiddler’s f---” for international agreements.  We have to be a little creative against his bullying tactics, not shake, weak kneed, in our basements.

 Ray Gruszecki

March 11, 2022

Early Ukrainians – Horsemen and Fighters

 

 

Early Ukrainians – Horsemen and Fighters

 Scythians, also called Scyth, Saka, and Sacae, a nomadic people, originally of Iranian stock, known from as early as the 9th century BCE who migrated westward from Central Asia to southern Russia and Ukraine in the 8th and 7th centuries BCE. The Scythians founded a rich, powerful empire centered on what is now Crimea. The empire survived for several centuries. The Scythians were feared and admired for their prowess in war and, in particular, for their horsemanship. They were among the earliest people to master the art of riding, and their mobility astonished their neighbors.

 The Mongol Empire invaded and conquered Kievan Rus' in the 13th century, destroying numerous cities, including Ryazan, Kolomna, Moscow, Vladimir and Kiev. The campaign was heralded by the Battle of the Kalka River in May 1223, which resulted in a Mongol victory over the forces of several Rus' principalities. The Mongols at first, retreated, having gathered their intelligence which was the purpose of the reconnaissance-in-force. A full-scale invasion of Rus' by Batu Khan followed, from 1237 to 1242. The invasion was ended by the Mongol succession process upon the death of Ögedei Khan. All Rus' principalities, including most of Ukraine, were forced to submit to Mongol rule and became vassals of the Golden Horde, some of which lasted until 1480.

 In the 15th century a new martial society—the Cossacks (from the Turkic kazak, meaning “adventurer” or “free man”)—was beginning to evolve in Ukraine’s southern steppe frontier. The term was applied initially to venturesome men who entered the steppe seasonally for hunting, fishing, and the gathering of honey. Their numbers were continually augmented by peasants fleeing serfdom and adventurers from other social strata, including the nobility. Banding together for mutual protection, the Cossacks by the mid-16th century had developed a military organization of a peculiarly democratic kind, with a general assembly (rada) as the supreme authority and elected officers, including the commander in chief, or hetman. Their centre was the Sich, an armed camp in the lands of the lower Dnieper “beyond the rapids” (za porohy)—hence, Zaporozhia (in contemporary usage, Zaporizhzhya).

 Note that the Cossacks are mentioned with pride in the Ukrainian national anthem.

 Ray Gruszecki

March 10, 2022

Bidens Executive Order Dystopia

 

Bidens Executive Order Dystopia

 Remember Joe Biden’s first day as president?  He had a stack of executive orders, of dubious legality, which he was furiously signing.  He signed thirty (30) during he first three days by CNN’s count.

 Many of these were not legal, and were prepared by Joe’s minions simply to spite President Trump.  Stable border with Mexico?  Open it up to all comers.  Energy self sufficiency and a net energy exporter?  Shut down exploration and shut down the pipelines.  Kill carbon emitting energy sources. An economy recovering from the Covid pandemic?  Spill trillions of socialist spending into it to fuel inflation.  Police pretty much controlling crime?  Defund them and institute “catch and release” without bail.  Putin, Xi, Erdogan, Kin Jong Un pretty much stabilized?  Project weak-kneed foreign policy to encourage their designs.

 Many of these executive orders were illegal and were eventually rescinded, but the damage was done.  Every positive accomplishment of President Trump was obliterated.  “Take that, you tweeting, combed over, loud-mouthed New York republican”.  No matter that we had a relatively stable country under Trump, (save for Covid).  His bellicose personality and tweets had to go, and be replaced by AOC’s and the squad’s sophomoric view of the world.

 That’s how our dystopia started, could it be a little more than one year ago?  And this one-year experience illustrates how rapidly a misguided and incompetent president and government can effectively ruin a country.

 It was bad enough before Putin invaded Ukraine, encouraged by the puerile, weak kneed response to his threats.  Now that he has invaded and is bogged down by the stiff resistance of the brave and courageous Ukrainian Cossacks, he waves his nukes like the bully he is, and our “coward in chief” and his sophomoric minions quaver in their boots.  Some of us learned as seven-year-olds in the playground, that you can’t back down from a bully, or he will “own your ass”.  No one wants nuclear war, but if we don’t help Ukraine with those MIGs from Poland, and in other ways, because Putin rattles his nukes, he will “own our asses”.

 The current dystopia, with its myriad of really harmful ills affecting our country can be directly attributed to weak, incompetent, senile Joe Biden and his misguided socialist advisors.  We had a relatively stable, if not perfect, country before Joe and his handlers took over.  Now, we have a seriously economically hurt country that is on the brink of a nuclear war with the cornered rat, Putin, in Moscow.  Nice going Joe!  We should listen really attentively to what you and your Marxist minions are saying about the 2022 and 2024 elections, to avoid further socialist predations on our poor country.

 Ray Gruszecki

March 9, 2022

Russian Oil and Gas

 

Russian Oil and Gas

 The U.S. just stopped all imports of Russian oil and gas.  All 3% that we have been importing.  Still, even this relatively small amount constituted about 672,000 barrels per day in 2021, and at $ 130 per barrel oil, amounts to some $87 million per day, or $32 billion per year, that Putin won’t get from the U.S.

 This sounds great, and makes us feel good, but it is somewhat only symbolic when compared to Russian oil and gas exports to the European Union.  In 2021, the EU imported $108 billion of Russian oil and gas.  This was at lower oil prices, say at $60/bbl.  It would have been $234 billion at $130/bbl oil.

 Putin has had the EU over a barrel (sic), of the EU’s own making.  Angela Merkel’s and Germany’s fervor to “go green”, away from fossil fuels, and away from nuclear energy, have led most of the EU toward reliance on plentiful and relatively cheap Russian gas and oil in the past, to fill the gap resulting from exhaustion of the North Sea gas fields, and from the EU’s rush toward using renewables.  France, being France, went to nuclear power in a big way, and produces over 70% of its electrical power from nuclear energy.

 However, the new, tough EU is poised to follow America, and to immediately decrease, and then phase out imports of energy related products from Russia.  The task will be tough, however, because the EU buys 45% of its imported gas, around a third of its oil and nearly half of its coal, from Russia. This makes the bloc vulnerable should Russia decide to retaliate for EU policies by curbing exports.

 The civilized western world is retaliating against Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign, democratically elected country, and the predations of the brutal Russian military on Ukrainian civilians.  It seems to be much more than the European and American propensity to talk, talk, talk, and do nothing.  The civilized world is exacting crippling penalties on Putin and on Russia.  Unfortunately, the innocent Russian people bear the brunt of these financial, economic and societal sanctions, as private citizens always do during wars..

 Decreasing oil, gas and coal imports from Russia will definitely harm Putin, Russia’s economy, and Russia’s ability to wage war.  But let’s not be naïve.  Xi Jinping and massive China and other outliers would just love to buy discounted Russian oil and gas.  Another massive country, India, has been silent about Russia’s aggression, and, like China, abstained in the UN Security Council vote to condemn the Russian attack.  Others, like Pakistan, are also non-committal.

 Some links on the issue of Russian energy exports and recent events

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/eu-phase-out-russian-gas-oil-coal-imports-leaders-draft-2022-03-07/

 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/why-europe-depends-on-russia-for-natural-gas.html

 https://www.iea.org/news/how-europe-can-cut-natural-gas-imports-from-russia-significantly-within-a-year

 https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451

 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-europeans-discussing-banning-russian-oil-imports-blinken-says-2022-03-06/

 https://twitter.com/search?q=eu+energy+imports+2021&ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Esearch

 Ray Gruszecki

March 8, 2022

Help Ukraine

 

Help Ukraine

 Where is the UN?  Where is NATO?  (They were there for Kosovo in 1999).  How about the Budapest Agreement and the Helsinki Accords guaranteeing that Ukraine will never be attacked if they give up their nuclear weapons, (which they did)?  There are all manner of treaties and agreements guaranteeing the integrity of sovereign nations, all flushed down the toilet by Putin when he invaded Ukraine.

 We keep hearing from Blinken and others in Biden’s administration, that we mustn’t consider imposing a no-fly zone in Ukraine, for fear that U.S. and Russian planes will start shooting at each other, and start World War III with a nuclear armed and threatening Putin’s Russia.  We’d also better watch our sanctions for the same fear of Putin’s nukes.

 Have Biden and his handlers forgotten that Putin’s nuclear armed and threatening Russia has already effectively started World War III by an unprovoked attack on the sovereign, democratic country of Ukraine?  Putin’s nuclear posturing adds an additional threat.

 No one wants an all-out nuclear war with Russia, but the West (read Biden and Blinken), cannot allow themselves to be blackmailed into not helping Ukraine.  As a minimum, stop U.S. imports of Russian oil, forthwith, and prevail on reluctant Germany and the EU countries to limit Russian energy imports to the barest minimum.  Putin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine is right now being financed by Russian energy exports to the U.S. and the EU.  This must stop!  Olaf Scholz and Germany are leading in Europe, although reluctant to decrease energy imports from Russia.  We need leadership in the U.S., not Joe hiding in his Delaware basement, or sending unbelievably incompetent Kamala to represent us.

 Prevail on ex Warsaw pact countries, particularly Poland, Hungary, Romania to send Ukraine some of their older MIG aircraft, which Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly, and replace these with modern American F-16’s.  There is fear in these countries of provoking Putin, but again, Putin is threatening the use of nukes without any further provocation.

 Make the sanctions stick, and show Putin that the world will not tolerate the unprovoked takeover of a sovereign country.  The Ukrainians are bravely resisting.  They need all the help we can give them.

 Many ex-military veterans from around the world are willing to fight for Ukraine.  These “foreign legions” should be encouraged and facilitated.  I wish that I were younger myself.

 

Ray Gruszecki

March 7, 2022

U.S. Oil Imports under Biden

 

U.S. Oil Imports under Biden

 I left the Oil industry a long time ago, and I never worked in the domestic oil industry.  I worked at refineries in Holland, Lebanon, Pakistan and Kenya, and was concerned with optimizing multi-refinery international supply systems while working at the New York City and Dallas company head offices.  So, I am aware of world-wide oil and energy supply considerations and economics.

 It does not require a lot of expertise to realize that the U.S. is, right now, importing upwards of 7% of $110 per barrel oil from Russia, (672,000 bpd, or 8% of total imports in 2021), and in effect is financing Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.  Biden and his “woke”, “greenie” minions won’t stop imports from Russia because of the “Squad’s” stance on CO2 emissions.  Brave Ukrainians are dying, while AOC pontificates sophomorically.

 Opening the Keystone XL pipeline and increasing imports from (normally) friendly Canada would add 830,000 bpd of oil, more than replacing what we are importing from Russia.  Opening oil leases that Biden closed with his dubious executive orders would make the U.S. self-sufficient in energy, and in fact a net exporter, as it was when Trump was president.

 These links refer: 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01/u-s-imports-of-russian-crude-oil-have-been-dropping-for-months

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-does-the-u-s-still-buy-russian-oil-11646151935#_=_

 https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy-environment/daily-on-energy-biden-holds-line-against-oil-and-gas-expansion-under-pressure-from-climate-hawks

 U.S. energy facts explained - consumption and production - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/gas-and-oil/the-united-states-was-energy-independent-in-2019-for-the-first-time-since-1957/

 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Can-The-US-Replace-Russian-Oil-Imports.html

 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-US-Imports-Record-Share-Of-Russian-Oil-Despite-Tensions.html#:~:text=U.S.%20refiners%20have%20turned%20to%20Russian%20oil%20and,energy%20standoff%20between%20the%20United%20States%20and%20Russia.

 https://www.nrdc.org/stories/what-keystone-pipeline#econ

 Ray Gruszecki

March 7, 2022

 

Putin’s Folly

 

Putin’s Folly

 Russia’s Putin has always seemed to be one smart cookie.  He was accomplished academically and physically, and educated as a lawyer.  He speaks German and English, in addition to Russian, and probably several other languages.  He has been in elective power in Russia off and on for nearly 30 years, and has enjoyed approval ratings in the past of upwards of 80%.

 Putin and Russia made short work of Chechnya in 1999, and shorter work of Georgia in August of 2008.  Apparently, Putin looked around, saw the senile, doddering old man in the White House, the socialists in Europe, and the ex-comedian as president of non-NATO Ukraine, concluded “easy pickings”, and invaded Ukraine with a multi-pronged attack.

 It seems that Putin’s decision was fueled by a distorted view of Russian military prowess, based on relatively easy past military victories, and further distorted by his own paranoia and delusions of grandeur.  Putin was wrong in oh, so many ways.

 Rather than a harmless, innocuous stand-up comic, Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned out to be a fearless leader, donning camo gear and leading his country from a bunker.  Zelenskyy’s Jewish heritage is reminiscent of Moshe Dayan and the Israeli freedom fighters.

 Rather than a docile, ovine population bleating baa—aa, to their Russian masters, the Ukrainian people remembered their fierce Cossack, Scythian, and even Mongol roots, and are battling the Russian invaders tooth and nail.  They have slowed the vaunted Russian military to a crawl, and inflicted heavy losses on them.  The Russians have a preponderance of military might and should eventually prevail, but they will be hurt and will suffer heavy losses inflicted by the determined Ukrainians fighting for their country on their own turf.

 Putin also miscalculated world’s reaction to his aggression against Ukraine, a sovereign European country, which is the second largest country by land area in Europe (after Russia), with a population of 45 million people.  Not exactly little Chechnya and Georgia.

 Not only did the Germans tell Putin to put the Nord Stream 2 pipeline where the sun don’t shine, and the world financial community restrict Russian banks’ use of the Belgian SWIFT system, the Germans effectively ended their pacifism with direct military and economic assistance to Ukraine.  Who would have thought that Chancellor Scholz of the SPD would be so forthright with German aid to Ukraine? (A cynical thought, - could this signal full German rearmament?)

 Putin’s excuse for invading Ukraine was to ensure that NATO does not border Russia (beware, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia).  Even Finland and Sweden reacted to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine by seriously considering NATO membership.  How would Putin enjoy a border with Finland in NATO of 800 plus miles?

 The Russian military attacked Ukraine from four directions, complicating command and control.  They apparently contemplated a Rommel style “blitzkrieg” to rapidly subdue the country.  Where was their superior air power?  Also, they obviously did not allow for sufficient food and fuel if the Ukrainians offered resistance and slowed them down. Some say that the Russians’ original plan was not to destroy the cities and population centers, but now, since they seem to be bogged down, and their losses mount from stiff Ukrainian resistance, they are between a rock and a hard place.  They have to bring in the massive anti-city weapons in their quest to conquer the bravely resisting Ukrainians.

 Putin and Russia have become international pariahs, and are being punished economically by most of the world. Significantly, China, India and UAE abstained during a UN Security Council vote to censure Russia.  Pakistan is another major country that has expressed neutrality.  Most other countries are universal in censuring and punishing Russia.

 Putin is a ego-maniacal bully who has become more dangerous because he is now reviled by the world and boxed into a corner.  Russia has nuclear weapons. But the Russian people are now living in the modern world, and not cowed in a Stalinist dystopia.  Let’s hope they can mitigate Putin’s actions, or get get him out of there before he can order more destruction on the world.

 Ray Gruszecki

March 2, 2022