Putin’s Folly

 

Putin’s Folly

 Russia’s Putin has always seemed to be one smart cookie.  He was accomplished academically and physically, and educated as a lawyer.  He speaks German and English, in addition to Russian, and probably several other languages.  He has been in elective power in Russia off and on for nearly 30 years, and has enjoyed approval ratings in the past of upwards of 80%.

 Putin and Russia made short work of Chechnya in 1999, and shorter work of Georgia in August of 2008.  Apparently, Putin looked around, saw the senile, doddering old man in the White House, the socialists in Europe, and the ex-comedian as president of non-NATO Ukraine, concluded “easy pickings”, and invaded Ukraine with a multi-pronged attack.

 It seems that Putin’s decision was fueled by a distorted view of Russian military prowess, based on relatively easy past military victories, and further distorted by his own paranoia and delusions of grandeur.  Putin was wrong in oh, so many ways.

 Rather than a harmless, innocuous stand-up comic, Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned out to be a fearless leader, donning camo gear and leading his country from a bunker.  Zelenskyy’s Jewish heritage is reminiscent of Moshe Dayan and the Israeli freedom fighters.

 Rather than a docile, ovine population bleating baa—aa, to their Russian masters, the Ukrainian people remembered their fierce Cossack, Scythian, and even Mongol roots, and are battling the Russian invaders tooth and nail.  They have slowed the vaunted Russian military to a crawl, and inflicted heavy losses on them.  The Russians have a preponderance of military might and should eventually prevail, but they will be hurt and will suffer heavy losses inflicted by the determined Ukrainians fighting for their country on their own turf.

 Putin also miscalculated world’s reaction to his aggression against Ukraine, a sovereign European country, which is the second largest country by land area in Europe (after Russia), with a population of 45 million people.  Not exactly little Chechnya and Georgia.

 Not only did the Germans tell Putin to put the Nord Stream 2 pipeline where the sun don’t shine, and the world financial community restrict Russian banks’ use of the Belgian SWIFT system, the Germans effectively ended their pacifism with direct military and economic assistance to Ukraine.  Who would have thought that Chancellor Scholz of the SPD would be so forthright with German aid to Ukraine? (A cynical thought, - could this signal full German rearmament?)

 Putin’s excuse for invading Ukraine was to ensure that NATO does not border Russia (beware, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia).  Even Finland and Sweden reacted to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine by seriously considering NATO membership.  How would Putin enjoy a border with Finland in NATO of 800 plus miles?

 The Russian military attacked Ukraine from four directions, complicating command and control.  They apparently contemplated a Rommel style “blitzkrieg” to rapidly subdue the country.  Where was their superior air power?  Also, they obviously did not allow for sufficient food and fuel if the Ukrainians offered resistance and slowed them down. Some say that the Russians’ original plan was not to destroy the cities and population centers, but now, since they seem to be bogged down, and their losses mount from stiff Ukrainian resistance, they are between a rock and a hard place.  They have to bring in the massive anti-city weapons in their quest to conquer the bravely resisting Ukrainians.

 Putin and Russia have become international pariahs, and are being punished economically by most of the world. Significantly, China, India and UAE abstained during a UN Security Council vote to censure Russia.  Pakistan is another major country that has expressed neutrality.  Most other countries are universal in censuring and punishing Russia.

 Putin is a ego-maniacal bully who has become more dangerous because he is now reviled by the world and boxed into a corner.  Russia has nuclear weapons. But the Russian people are now living in the modern world, and not cowed in a Stalinist dystopia.  Let’s hope they can mitigate Putin’s actions, or get get him out of there before he can order more destruction on the world.

 Ray Gruszecki

March 2, 2022