Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Russian Oil and Gas

 

Russian Oil and Gas

 The U.S. just stopped all imports of Russian oil and gas.  All 3% that we have been importing.  Still, even this relatively small amount constituted about 672,000 barrels per day in 2021, and at $ 130 per barrel oil, amounts to some $87 million per day, or $32 billion per year, that Putin won’t get from the U.S.

 This sounds great, and makes us feel good, but it is somewhat only symbolic when compared to Russian oil and gas exports to the European Union.  In 2021, the EU imported $108 billion of Russian oil and gas.  This was at lower oil prices, say at $60/bbl.  It would have been $234 billion at $130/bbl oil.

 Putin has had the EU over a barrel (sic), of the EU’s own making.  Angela Merkel’s and Germany’s fervor to “go green”, away from fossil fuels, and away from nuclear energy, have led most of the EU toward reliance on plentiful and relatively cheap Russian gas and oil in the past, to fill the gap resulting from exhaustion of the North Sea gas fields, and from the EU’s rush toward using renewables.  France, being France, went to nuclear power in a big way, and produces over 70% of its electrical power from nuclear energy.

 However, the new, tough EU is poised to follow America, and to immediately decrease, and then phase out imports of energy related products from Russia.  The task will be tough, however, because the EU buys 45% of its imported gas, around a third of its oil and nearly half of its coal, from Russia. This makes the bloc vulnerable should Russia decide to retaliate for EU policies by curbing exports.

 The civilized western world is retaliating against Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign, democratically elected country, and the predations of the brutal Russian military on Ukrainian civilians.  It seems to be much more than the European and American propensity to talk, talk, talk, and do nothing.  The civilized world is exacting crippling penalties on Putin and on Russia.  Unfortunately, the innocent Russian people bear the brunt of these financial, economic and societal sanctions, as private citizens always do during wars..

 Decreasing oil, gas and coal imports from Russia will definitely harm Putin, Russia’s economy, and Russia’s ability to wage war.  But let’s not be naïve.  Xi Jinping and massive China and other outliers would just love to buy discounted Russian oil and gas.  Another massive country, India, has been silent about Russia’s aggression, and, like China, abstained in the UN Security Council vote to condemn the Russian attack.  Others, like Pakistan, are also non-committal.

 Some links on the issue of Russian energy exports and recent events

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/eu-phase-out-russian-gas-oil-coal-imports-leaders-draft-2022-03-07/

 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/why-europe-depends-on-russia-for-natural-gas.html

 https://www.iea.org/news/how-europe-can-cut-natural-gas-imports-from-russia-significantly-within-a-year

 https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451

 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-europeans-discussing-banning-russian-oil-imports-blinken-says-2022-03-06/

 https://twitter.com/search?q=eu+energy+imports+2021&ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Esearch

 Ray Gruszecki
March 8, 2022

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