Inescapable Facts

 

Inescapable Facts

 Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe by area.  It is seventh largest by population. Russia is largest in both of these categories.

 Ukraine has been an independent sovereign country, off and on, since the late 18^th century, most recently since leaving the Soviet Union In 1991. Ukraine gave up 1700 nuclear warheads in 1994, when they were given assurances by the Budapest Memorandum and by the Finland Accords that they would never be invaded.

 Ukraine was invaded by Russia yesterday, and is in the process of being conquered by the massed, modern Russian military, and then either annexed or being made, once again, a Russian satrapy or suzerainty.

 Since Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the western powers stand by helplessly, yap verbally and threaten more “sanctions”, which Putin has already factored in, and scoffs at.

 Goodbye, independent Ukraine, and possibly, “hello” Baltic states and others.  “But they are members of NATO”, you say.  “So, what is Biden or Europe gonna do about it if Putin attacks them?  More talk, and more “sanctions”, c’mon, man.  Is Biden going to put NATO Article 5 boots on the ground for little Estonia with 1.3 million people?

 

 Upon launching the attack on Ukraine, Putin warned the United States, NATO and other world leaders that attempts to intervene will be met by an immediate Russian response that "will lead you to such consequences that you have never faced in your history."

 What did he mean by that?  Was he rattling his nukes? Or his cyber? Or his energy supply to Europe?  Putin’s most potent and realistic threat is energy supply from Russia to greenie, socialist, Europe.  If the EU is too zealous with their “sanctions”, he will cut back on supplies of natural gas, shut down their electrical generation and freeze them out. As far as Europe is concerned, Putin is the modern incarnation of a 1970’s OPEC sheik.

 The EU is the largest importer of natural gas in the world, according to the Directorate-General for Energy for the EU, with the largest share of its gas coming from Russia (41%).

Germany is focusing on renewables, but the grid is not yet equipped for intermittent sources like wind and solar to completely fill the gap.  Nuclear power is the largest source of electricity in France, with a generation of 70.6% of the country's total electricity production.  Other EU countries rely heavily on Russian natural gas, as evidenced by the above 41%.

 Cyber? Russia has accomplished hackers.  Ours are better.  Retired Lt General Jack Keane is quoted as saying that the U.S. cyber capability “would make your eyes water”.

 Only a madman would go to the nuclear option.  Putin is a ruthless and unscrupulous ex KGB agent, but hardly mad.  He seems to have taken a lesson from Stalin, and like Stalin, apparently seeks to change the borders of Europe, and hence, the world order.

President Trump would have stopped this attack on Ukraine, and effectively told Putin to “shut up and sit down”.  But alas, Trump has finally been discredited by the massed mainstream media and big tech, at least until 2024, and is playing golf in Florida.

 

Ray Gruszecki

February 25, 2022