Why is Putin Invading Ukraine?

 

Why is Putin Invading Ukraine?

 The short answer is because he can.  This may seem to be a flip answer, but it relates to the weakness of the major powers in the western world right now.  The U.S. “president” is a senile, weak, puerile, doddering, old empty hulk controlled by his left-wing advisors, who talks threats, but does nothing   Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany has moved away from Angela Merkel’s relatively centrist CDU, toward the more leftist SPD, or Social Democrat Party.

 Threats of additional sanctions on Russia sort of fall on deaf ears.  Russia has already absorbed substantial western sanctions related to Putin’s annexation of Crimea and other Russian infractions of international law.  It’s doubtful that Germany will acquiesce to not starting up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline with its promise of cheap Russian gas, or that the international financial community will ban Russian banks from using the SWIFT banking system.

 More to the point is the strategic importance of Ukraine as the southern buffer for Russia against the west.  Finland serves this purpose in the North and Belorussia in the center.  A pro-Russian, non-NATO Ukraine is needed by Putin in the southern part of Russia.

 Historical reasons for Putin’s designs on Ukraine are that Ukraine is really Russian.  Kievan Rus, in ancient Ukraine was the seminal foundation of the Russian nation.  The Ukrainian SSR was a founding republic of the Soviet Union.  Perhaps more than other ex-Soviet republics, Ukraine was “sovietized” by Stalin by expatriating large numbers of ethnic Russians.

 Roughly the eastern third of Ukraine is heavily Russian in nature, particularly Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts sometimes are also regarded as Eastern Ukraine.  The western part of the country is more Poland and EU oriented.

 When I visited Russia in 2017, Putin had an 80% approval rating.  This may have slipped a bit, since Russia’s economy is already suffering from western sanctions, low energy prices, Covid and other economic ills.  Many Russians resent the chaos brought by so called modern democratization, and miss the big, old, international giant Soviet Union that imposed a repressive, but well-defined stability on Russian life.  So, they back Putin’s efforts to “make Russia great again”.

 This is Putin’s chance to steal another piece of Ukraine like he did with Crimea when Obama, another weak U.S. president, was in office.  One cannot imagine Putin making these invasion moves with Trump or even one of the Bushes as U.S. President.  In fact, if Trump were President and Mike Pompeo were Secretary of State, Ukraine would probably already be in NATO, and we would not have Putin threatening it.

 Let’s put a few things in perspective.  Russia’s GDP (Official Exchange Rate) is $1.7 trillion.  In comparison, the U.S. GDP is $20 trillion, China is $16.5 trillion, Italy is $2 trillion, and Mexico is $1.3 trillion.

 In this Russian threat against Ukraine, we treat Putin’s Russia as if it were the old Soviet Union, rather than a country with the economic power somewhere between Italy and Mexico. After all, Putin has put upwards of 190,000 troops around Eastern Ukraine, and has flexed his nuclear muscles in recent tests.  Can you imagine the economic strain on an already faltering Russian economy?

 If the west allows Putin to absorb Ukraine, or the Eastern third of Ukraine, it will truly constitute the biggest coup in recent history.  It will set an example for Xi Jinping and Taiwan, for Erdogan in Turkey and the Middle East, and for every other despot in the world who has designs on their neighbors.

 Also, these despots will strike soon after Putin, while there is a weak shell of an American president, while the EU continues with their selfish, socialist policies, and while China continues its world-wide expansion.

 Ray Gruszecki

February 21, 2022