Will Putin Attack Ukraine?

 

Will Putin Attack Ukraine?

 Putin has massed some 130,000 troops around the eastern borders of Ukraine.  What is his basis for threatening this attack?  To be honest, the real basis for Putin’s militancy is a weak, puerile Joe Biden being posed as “leader of the free world”, and the current socialist orientation of the European Union, and of Olaf Sholz and Germany, the “leaders of Europe”.

 Putin’s rationale for threatening the attack on Ukraine is that Ukraine has traditionally been a part of the old Soviet Union, and that the West should agree that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO.  Putin would probably be strategically satisfied to absorb the Donbas region in Eastern Ukraine, and to extract an agreement that Ukraine never join NATO.

 But what about the crippling sanctions on Russia threatened by Biden, Antony Blinken, Jake Sullivan, John Kirby and others?  As with much in the Biden administration, this is so much talk, talk, talk.

 Really debilitating sanctions against Putin would be cancelling the startup and operation the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, removing Russia from the Belgian Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) banking system, and personal sanctions against Putin himself and other Russian oligarchs. 

 Does anyone think that the socialist oriented European Union, or Germany or the international banking community will impose such sanctions on Russia and Putin?  Not too much chance, unless Putin maybe invades the Baltic states and Poland, a persistent fear that I observed when visiting those countries.

 Many in the West tend to view Putin’s Russia as similar to the old Soviet Union.  Modern Russia has a GDP slightly larger than Mexico.  Putin is posturing like the old Soviet Union in creating this crisis about Ukraine, presumably aiming to extract concessions about the future of Ukraine.

 It’s particularly hypocritical how the Russian “teddy bear” cozied up to the nasty, big old Chinese dragon at the Beijing Olympic ceremonies.  Another opportunity for Xi Jinping to flex China’s considerable muscles on the world stage.

 Ray Gruszecki

February 7, 2022