Election Paths
If we watch the conventional polls and the Real Clear
Politics averages, we have to conclude that “all is lost” for Trump and the
republicans in the coming election.
Unfortunately, we have to reach this conclusion even allowing for
suppression polling and media skewing of the polls. We simply cannot explain away the large
margins of Biden over Trump, even in the swing states.
But wait a minute. A
close look at the electoral map, and reference to the Trafalgar Group, who
accurately predicted not only the 2016 national election, but many other
elections against the conventional polling grain, shows that Trump may very
well win in 2020, as he has been saying all along. Links follow.
Electoral arithmetic https://www.270towin.com/
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/
A look at the electoral map shows that if Trump wins
Florida’s 29 electoral college votes, Pennsylvania’s 20 and either of
Minnesota’s or Wisconsin’s 10 votes, he can afford to lose Michigan, Wisconsin
(or alternately Minnesota), Arizona and Nevada, and still win the election with
277 electoral votes. He could lose
Pennsylvania, win Arizona and Nevada, and still win with 274 electoral votes.
So, certainly, all is not lost to Trump and the
republicans. A good showing in the
coming debate, good economic news for the third quarter, positive news about
vaccines and the continuing almost frenetic pace of his multi-state daily
rallies, all are positive for Trump, as are Biden’s silence on court packing
and other major issues, and the increasing din of the “pay for play” schemes of
the Biden family.
Ray Gruszecki
October 19, 2020
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